Brent crude oil price remained under pressure this week as concerns about global supply continued. It dropped to a low of $58.7 on Monday, its lowest level since February 2021 also as analysts from companies like Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley slashed their oil price forecast.
Why crude oil price is crashing
Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have crashed and are hovering at their lowest level in years. This decline happened amid the rising concerns of a supply and demand imbalance.
Analysts at the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) have all downgraded their demand estimates because of the rising trade war between the United States and other countries.
The EIA reduced its demand estimate by 300k barrels of oil a day, meaning that its annual growth will continue by just 730k this year. Similarly, the EIA and OPEC have all lowered their demand estimates for the year.
At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its global growth estimate, and now expects the average rate to be 2.8% this year and 3% in 2026. These estimates are lower than the previous guidance of 3.3%. Oil demand often fall when the global economy is not doing well.
Read more: Here’s why the Brent crude oil price could crash below $50 soon
Supply concerns pushes Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley to slash forecast
The Brent crude oil price has also dropped as concerns about the rising global supply remain.
OPEC+ member countries announced that they would increase the daily production by over 400k barrels a day. It was the second time in a row that the cartel has decided to increase the daily output.
More supply will likely come from Iran if it reaches a deal with the United States. With its economy struggling, there is a likelihood that the country will be open to a deal in the coming months.
The ongoing supply and demand imbalance explains why analysts have slashed their crude oil price forecast. Barclays has slashed its forecast by $4 per barrel to $66 for this year and $60% for 2026.
Morgan Stanley analysts slashed their oil prediction to $62.50 as it expect the oil market glut to hit 1.1 million barrels a day, up by 400k from its previous estimate.
Similarly, analysts at Goldman Sachs see the crude oil price falling to $60 this year, down from the previous estimate of $63. It also sees the price falling to $52 last year.
There are signs that oil producers are adjusting their budgets. Russia, which makes most of its money from energy. According to Bloomberg, the country is now considering changing its budget-building mechanism as prices plunge. It will do that by reducing the threshold of its budget from $60 to $50.
Brent crude oil price forecast
Our last crude oil prediction pointed to more downside, with Brent falling to below $50 later this year. This forecast continues to work out well as Brent has dropped to $58.7, its lowest level in years.
The main reason for this is that Brent has formed a descending triangle pattern, a popular bearish continuation sign. It has dropped below the key support level at $70, the lower side of this triangle.
Brent remains below all moving averages, while all oscillators have pointed downwards. Therefore, the price will likely continue falling, with the next target to watch being the psychological point at $50. A move below that level will point to further downside, potentially to $47.
This target is derived from measuring the widest part of the triangle and then measuring the same from the lower side. A move above the resistance at $70 will invalidate the bearish oil forecast.
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